Markets navigated an unusually volatile macro backdrop in Q3. Oil prices experienced big swings, long-term Treasury yields rose to multi-decade highs, Fed expectations shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes, and the AI trade became more volatile.
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Stocks staged a strong recovery in Q2, with the S&P 500 gaining +15% and finishing near record highs. The Middle East conflict and oil shock that started in Q1 continued for most of Q2, but oil prices fell as the two sides worked toward a ceasefire agreement.
The First Quarter Was Eventful For Markets. Stocks traded Higher To Start The Year, With The S&p 500 posting A Modest Gain In January. However, The market Traded Lower In March Due To Escalating geopolitical Tensions In The Middle East And The strait Of Hormuz Closure, Which Led To A Spike In Oil prices.
Despite a turbulent political environment, equities delivered a third consecutive year of strong returns. International stocks significantly outperformed the US with a boost. From a weaker USD which forecasters expect will continue to weaken, but at a slower pace than in 2025.
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Markets extended their robust Q2 performance into Q3, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and small-cap stocks all reaching fresh highs. Despite softer labor market readings and conflicting economic indicators, investor sentiment stayed positive, buoyed by solid corporate earnings, the Federal Reserve’s shift toward rate cuts, and diminishing trade tensions.
Pardon the cliché, but the second quarter was a tale of two markets. After declining over -20% from the peak on February 19 to the trough on April 8 and -12% in just four trading days in early April, the S&P 500 closed the quarter at a new all-time high.
The start of 2025 looked promising for the stock market, continuing the strong performance we’ve seen over the past two years. The S&P 500 reached its highest point ever in mid-February, the economy was showing positive signs, and investors were feeling optimistic.
It is reasonable to expect lower returns from US equities over the next 5-10 years given high starting valuations but valuations are a poor predictor of short-term returns Stay disciplined and focus on your long-term goals.