The First Quarter Was Eventful For Markets. Stocks traded Higher To Start The Year, With The S&p 500 posting A Modest Gain In January. However, The market Traded Lower In March Due To Escalating geopolitical Tensions In The Middle East And The strait Of Hormuz Closure, Which Led To A Spike In Oil prices.
Despite a turbulent political environment, equities delivered a third consecutive year of strong returns. International stocks significantly outperformed the US with a boost. From a weaker USD which forecasters expect will continue to weaken, but at a slower pace than in 2025.
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Markets extended their robust Q2 performance into Q3, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and small-cap stocks all reaching fresh highs. Despite softer labor market readings and conflicting economic indicators, investor sentiment stayed positive, buoyed by solid corporate earnings, the Federal Reserve’s shift toward rate cuts, and diminishing trade tensions.
Pardon the cliché, but the second quarter was a tale of two markets. After declining over -20% from the peak on February 19 to the trough on April 8 and -12% in just four trading days in early April, the S&P 500 closed the quarter at a new all-time high.
The start of 2025 looked promising for the stock market, continuing the strong performance we’ve seen over the past two years. The S&P 500 reached its highest point ever in mid-February, the economy was showing positive signs, and investors were feeling optimistic.
It is reasonable to expect lower returns from US equities over the next 5-10 years given high starting valuations but valuations are a poor predictor of short-term returns Stay disciplined and focus on your long-term goals.
The major development in 3Q24 was the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by -0.50%, the first rate cut of this cycle. It came as the Fed shifted its focus, with unemployment rising to a 33-month high and inflation moving back to target.
In the first quarter, confidence increasingly rose that the US economy would remain strong while inflation concerns persisted, pushing out expectations for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to later in 2024 or even into 2025.
Markets defied expectations in 2023, outpacing assumptions. We recap 2023 and provide our investment outlook for 2024 and beyond.