Pardon the cliché, but the second quarter was a tale of two markets. After declining over -20% from the peak on February 19 to the trough on April 8 and -12% in just four trading days in early April, the S&P 500 closed the quarter at a new all-time high.
The start of 2025 looked promising for the stock market, continuing the strong performance we’ve seen over the past two years. The S&P 500 reached its highest point ever in mid-February, the economy was showing positive signs, and investors were feeling optimistic.
It is reasonable to expect lower returns from US equities over the next 5-10 years given high starting valuations but valuations are a poor predictor of short-term returns Stay disciplined and focus on your long-term goals.
The major development in 3Q24 was the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by -0.50%, the first rate cut of this cycle. It came as the Fed shifted its focus, with unemployment rising to a 33-month high and inflation moving back to target.
In the first quarter, confidence increasingly rose that the US economy would remain strong while inflation concerns persisted, pushing out expectations for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to later in 2024 or even into 2025.
Markets defied expectations in 2023, outpacing assumptions. We recap 2023 and provide our investment outlook for 2024 and beyond.