It is reasonable to expect lower returns from US equities over the next 5-10 years given high starting valuations but valuations are a poor predictor of short-term returns Stay disciplined and focus on your long-term goals.
The major development in 3Q24 was the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by -0.50%, the first rate cut of this cycle. It came as the Fed shifted its focus, with unemployment rising to a 33-month high and inflation moving back to target.
In the first quarter, confidence increasingly rose that the US economy would remain strong while inflation concerns persisted, pushing out expectations for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to later in 2024 or even into 2025.
Markets defied expectations in 2023, outpacing assumptions. We recap 2023 and provide our investment outlook for 2024 and beyond.